| Development of Simple Assessment tool for predict imminent risk of Fracture in Elderly women |
So Young Park1, Sujin Kwon2, Kyoung Jin Kim3, Seong Hee Ahn4, Ha Young Kim5, Kyoung Min Kim6
, and the Epidemiology Committee of the Korean Society of Bone Metabolism |
1Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, Kyung Hee University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
2Division of Endocrinology, Department of Internal Medicine, Yongin Severance Hospital, Yongin, Korea
3Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, Korea University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
4Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, Inha University School of Medicine, Incheon, Korea
5Department of Internal Medicine, Gangneung Asan Hospital, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Gangneung, Korea
6Division of Endocrinology, Department of Internal Medicine, Yongin Severance Hospital, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Yongin, Korea |
Corresponding Author:
Kyoung Min Kim , Tel: +82-31-5189-8798, Fax: +82-31-5189-8567, Email: kyoungmin.kim@yonsei.ac.kr
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Received: July 14, 2025; Revised: August 19, 2025; Accepted: August 21, 2025. |
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| Abstract |
Background/Aims: Previously developed fracture risk prediction models primarily estimate long-term risk and are limited in their ability to predict imminent fractures. We developed a simplified and practical model to predict the short-term fracture risk (1- to 3-year risk) in elderly Korean women.
Methods: We included 1,440,988 women who underwent a national life-transition health examination at age 66 between 2011 and 2017. The participants were followed-up for 3 years to identify major osteoporotic fractures (MOFs) and hip fractures. Clinical risk factors such as body mass index, bone mineral density, fall history within 6 months, prior fractures within 3 years, recent fractures within 1 year, and recurrent fractures were analyzed. Multivariate logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) for these risk factors. Each OR was converted into a risk score, and the total scores were stratified into five groups: 0–4, 5–7, 8–10, 11–14, and 15–18 points.
Results: Higher scores were associated with a significantly increased risk of fractures. At 3 years, the incidences of MOF were 3.4%, 5.8%, 12.0%, 21.3%, and 36.6%, and the hip fracture incidences were 0.13%, 0.26%, 0.59%, 0.73%, and 1.82% across the five groups, respectively.
Conclusions: This simplified scoring model is a practical tool for predicting the 1- to 3-year fracture risk in elderly Korean women. By stratifying patients into risk groups based on routine clinical data, it enables the early identification of high-risk individuals and facilitates timely preventive care. |
| Keywords:
Osteoporosis ; Postmenopause ; Osteoporotic fractures ; Risk assessment ; Korea |
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